Sequential Bayesian Inference for Detection and Response to Seasonal Epidemics
نویسندگان
چکیده
Introduction Detection and response to seasonal outbreaks of endemic diseases provides an excellent testbed for quantitative bio-surveillance. As a case study we focus on annual influenza outbreaks. To incorporate observed year-over-year variation in flu incidence cases and timing of outbreaks, we analyze a stochastic compartmental SIS model that includes seasonal forcing by a latent Markovian factor. Epidemic detection then consists in identifying the presence of the environmental factor (“high” flu season), as well as estimation of the epidemic parameters, such as contact and recovery rates.
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عنوان ژورنال:
دوره 5 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2013